An insider's perspective on free oil change/maintenance plans:
There are two things the dealer is betting on when they sign you up for these.
The first thing is they are betting that cost of the plan will exceed the cost of paying for the oil changes yourself. Typically, this is done by putting an expiration date on the plan, in addition to a mileage limit. Some plans will
only have an expiration date, with
no mileage limit. Not all plans have an expiration date, but most will. What dealers will often do is show you a quick calculation that shows that the overall cost of paying for all the oil changes yourself is much higher than having them done under the maintenance plan. It will look something like this (using fake numbers for simplicity's sake):
Cost of maintenance plan: $500 for 3 years/100,000 miles
Cost per oil change: $100
Oil changed every 10,000 miles
100,000 miles @ 3 years ÷ 10,000 miles = 10 oil changes x $100 = $1,000 ($500 savings!)
If the dealer is honest, they'll tell you outright that this math only works out if you hit the mileage first before you hit the expiration date. Take a look at the math again, this time assuming you're only driving about 10,000 miles a year, meaning you'll only put 30,000 miles on the vehicle before the maintenance plan expires:
Cost of maintenance plan: $500 for 3 years/100,000 miles
Cost per oil change: $100
Oil changed every 10,000 miles
30,000 miles @ 3 years ÷ 10,000 miles = 3 oil changes x $100 = $300 ($200 loss!)
The second thing they are betting on is that they'll upsell you on other services/repairs while your vehicle is in their shop for the free stuff. Half the battle for a shop when selling work is getting the customer in the door. A maintenance plan pretty much guarantees that you will be visiting the shop semi-regularly, and you will therefore be that much more likely to get any repairs done at that shop. Many shops will give complimentary inspections with any service, so if they find any issues with the vehicle they can sell you the repair on the spot. If the plan you're looking at doesn't have an expiration date, that means the dealer is relying solely on this method to make their money back, and more often than not, they succeed in doing this.
The above long rant, boiled down, essentially means this:
You will generally only get your money's worth out of maintenance plans if you drive or ride your vehicle frequently, and only get your maintenance performed at one location. Check to see if there's an expiration date on the plan. Try to calculate how many miles you put on the vehicle and see if you'll get your money's worth before the plan expires.
