We are in deep doo doo!

[IdahoMtnSpyder]

At least that's the way I see it. For 3 weeks now the daily new cases in all of the US is staying almost flat, hardly declining. Some states may see declines to low levels but it sure doesn't look like the US as a whole will for several months. See here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/



You can see daily case graphs for each of the states on the John Hopkins site: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. Click on the Admin 1 tab under the list of countries and Daily Cases tab under the graph. A number of states are still seeing daily increases in the daily new cases number. No state is coming close to a zero daily number yet.

 

[UtahPete]

At least that's the way I see it. For 3 weeks now the daily new cases in all of the US is staying almost flat, hardly declining. Some states may see declines to low levels but it sure doesn't look like the US as a whole will for several months. See here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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You can see daily case graphs for each of the states on the John Hopkins site: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. Click on the Admin 1 tab under the list of countries and Daily Cases tab under the graph. A number of states are still seeing daily increases in the daily new cases number. No state is coming close to a zero daily number yet.

:agree: and expecting to shelter in place for at least another month. After that, camping and fishing trips off the grid.

 

[bhern]

At least that's the way I see it. For 3 weeks now the daily new cases in all of the US is staying almost flat, hardly declining. Some states may see declines to low levels but it sure doesn't look like the US as a whole will for several months. See here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm resolved to stay out of any deep discussions of this whole mess for my own sanity's sake, but I did want to toss in a bit of my perhaps optimistic slant on this: there is no way that the reporting is accurate for the early stages of this whole deal. (There's no way the reporting is accurate, period, but that's one of those longer/deeper rabbit holes...)

By that, I mean that I believe the number of cases is WAY underreported for the late February/early March timeframe, which means the shape of the curve -- while not as aggressively dropping as we all wish it would, is indeed flattening to a degree that it looks like we're going to stay below the "no way in h*** can we take care of them all" level in most of the country.

Basis for my POV is threefold: (1) we're just now understanding that there were deaths from the coronavirus here in the states in mid-February, otherwise known as that part of your chart where nothing was happening, (2) the level of testing was (and really, still is) such that there's no way to really have an accurate handle of the spin-up period, and (3) just watching how error-prone the reporting process was in the early stages of anything being reported at all.

None of that is a criticism of anyone who has anything to do with anything -- it just suggests strongly to me that we have had a longer period of fairly high infection engagement than that chart would have us believe. We should know more in the next week, and while I don't necessarily disagree with Utah Pete or IdahoMtnSpyder about how quickly we might be getting closer to normal, I'm a bit more optimistic that we'll be able to have intelligent conversations about taking steps toward it in many areas.

 

[mloomis34]

Did you know that more people have died fom the regular flu than from the Carona-Vid?????? What does that tell you.

 

[Gwolf]

My state never required to stay at home. Only those most at risk were locked down and isolated (before they had contact with the virus). There was a few incidents when the virus got into some nursing homes and retirement homes, but for the most part our hospitalization and death statistics come in well below those states which tried to lock down everybody and require them to stay in their homes. Being relatively anti-social even before the Covid19 appeared, I noticed very little change in my normal activities, with the exception of the restaurants now only allowing drive in window, take out. That is OK with me too.

 

[UtahPete]

Did you know that more people have died fom the regular flu than from the Carona-Vid?????? What does that tell you.

I don't know; what does that tell us (assuming it's true, which it's not)?

 

[IdahoMtnSpyder]

Did you know that more people have died fom the regular flu than from the Carona-Vid?????? What does that tell you.

From here: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

COVID-19: Approximately 197,578 deaths reported worldwide; 51,949 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 25, 2020.*

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

The COVID-19 situation is changing rapidly. Since this disease is caused by a new virus, people do not have immunity to it, and a vaccine may be many months away. Doctors and scientists are working on estimating the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be higher than that of most strains of the flu.

Note that is ~52,000 deaths for 3 months vs up to 61,000 deaths for 12 months. And consider this. The 52,000 deaths have come from about 900,000 infections. The up to 61,000 flu deaths come from about 9.3 to 45 million infections. That's about a 5.8% rate vs. about 0.13% to 0.65%. rate for flu deaths. The Covid-19 death rate is about 9 to 45 times the flu death rate. Nothing to be concerned about, right?

 

[IdahoMtnSpyder]

but for the most part our hospitalization and death statistics come in well below those states which tried to lock down everybody and require them to stay in their homes.

Cite your source, please. Now let's go over to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ and look at some numbers. There appears to be a significant disconnect between your statement and the numbers being recorded. Florida has a death rate of 51 per million population. Idaho has a death rate of 32 per million. Oregon has a rate of 21 per million. Sure looks to me like these two states which went into lockdown before FL have lower rates than FL.

 

[al0vely]

Did you know that more people have died fom the regular flu than from the Carona-Vid?????? What does that tell you.

It tells me to not minimize the impact of either - they are both deadly.

 

[ARtraveler]

Unfortunately, it will not get solved here.

Just get along and we are good. :bowdown:

 

[IdahoMtnSpyder]

I'm resolved to stay out of any deep discussions of this whole mess for my own sanity's sake, but I did want to toss in a bit of my perhaps optimistic slant on this: there is no way that the reporting is accurate for the early stages of this whole deal. (There's no way the reporting is accurate, period, but that's one of those longer/deeper rabbit holes...)

By that, I mean that I believe the number of cases is WAY underreported for the late February/early March timeframe, which means the shape of the curve -- while not as aggressively dropping as we all wish it would, is indeed flattening to a degree that it looks like we're going to stay below the "no way in h*** can we take care of them all" level in most of the country.

Basis for my POV is threefold: (1) we're just now understanding that there were deaths from the coronavirus here in the states in mid-February, otherwise known as that part of your chart where nothing was happening, (2) the level of testing was (and really, still is) such that there's no way to really have an accurate handle of the spin-up period, and (3) just watching how error-prone the reporting process was in the early stages of anything being reported at all.

None of that is a criticism of anyone who has anything to do with anything -- it just suggests strongly to me that we have had a longer period of fairly high infection engagement than that chart would have us believe. We should know more in the next week, and while I don't necessarily disagree with Utah Pete or IdahoMtnSpyder about how quickly we might be getting closer to normal, I'm a bit more optimistic that we'll be able to have intelligent conversations about taking steps toward it in many areas.

You have a valid point. The accuracy of the data is a big concern. Even if cases preexisted the start of the reports, it could not have been really great. If it had been there would have been an acute awareness a lot earlier than there was. There is inaccuracy in both the reported number of cases and deaths. As more testing becomes available no doubt both numbers will increase.

SE Asia countries were hit hard by MERS and SARS so they knew to take fast severe action to contain Covid-19, including a much greater clamp down on movement than in the US. Go over to www.worldometers.org and look at the daily cases chart for S Korea. It hit a peak about 3 weeks after the rate really started climbing, and then dropped to a plateau about 2 weeks after the peak. But then, the plateau lasted almost a month before it started going down again. So it took 2 months from peak to a handful of daily cases. That is in the environment of very tight government control of movement, much more than we have here in the US.

I hope your optimism turns out to be substantiated, but I have my doubts. When you compare the S Korea graphs to the US graphs you can see how comparatively slow we are in getting this knocked down. And then when you factor in population density it really adds to the contrast. The US population is only 1/15 of S Korea. And density promotes transmission. Just look at NYC and New Orleans. The US still has not hit a clear peak, but we may not either. It's possible we will have flat top peak for awhile yet before the numbers start definitively going down.

 

[Gwolf]

Cite your source, please. Now let's go over to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ and look at some numbers. There appears to be a significant disconnect between your statement and the numbers being recorded. Florida has a death rate of 51 per million population. Idaho has a death rate of 32 per million. Oregon has a rate of 21 per million. Sure looks to me like these two states which went into lockdown before FL have lower rates than FL.

Florida never went into full lock down.

https://thefloridachannel.org/videos/4-22-20-press-conference-on-coronavirus-covid-19/

 

[BajaRon]

Everything looks a lot bigger under the microscope.

‘The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.’
H.L. Mencken

I disagree, somewhat, with the nationwide lock down. Though I understand that what I think is not going to make any difference. They say that figures lie and liars figure. Meaning that you can always produce numbers that will make whatever case you choose to make. In my non-pertinent opinion. This whole thing has been blown out of proportion. Everyone has an agenda these days. And while some are looking to keep us as safe as possible. Others have less honorable reasons. Control being a main factor.

If you really want to be safe. Don't smoke, dip, chew or Vape (about 500,000 deaths in US per year).
Don't drive or ride in a car (1.25 million US deaths per year).
Don't overeat. Don't sit too much. Don't consume too much sugar or carbohydrates.
Annual US deaths due to Heart disease (650,000 per year), Cancer (600,000 per year).

According to the CDC, we lost 15,292 Americans due to gun violence in 2019. So, if all guns were made illegal and confiscated. We might save 16,000 people. We lose that many people in 4.5 days in car accidents. Not that these 16,000 are not important. But put into perspective, it is a bit amazing that so much angst and effort are put into this relatively low mortality rate issue. To watch the evening news. You'd think people are dropping like flies due to lead poisoning. Yet, if we banned car travel, it would save 78 times more lives.

If the government regulated our diet and banned tobacco products. 100's of thousands of lives could be saved. And believe me, there are many who propose exactly this.

It all comes down to a basic conflict between personal freedom vs what someone else in power thinks is best. We can certainly see this struggle, front and center, these days. If enough people feel that trading freedom for promised safety is the way to go. We will definitely see what the other side of this coin looks like. And return to a lifestyle that our founders risked everything to escape. I don't think we have to wonder what their advise would be.

I used to run into burning buildings for a living. And in my opinion. There are things much worse than risk.

 

[IdahoMtnSpyder]

Florida never went into full lock down.

https://thefloridachannel.org/videos/4-22-20-press-conference-on-coronavirus-covid-19/

The graphs in the presentation do make a compelling argument that social distancing measures may not be as effective as thought. What is needed is some measure of how much voluntary social distancing may be a factor as contrasted to mandated distancing. But that is probably nigh to impossible to determine. If it is determined that social distancing is not as effective as thought then the big question is what is the method how the virus is spreading? That unknown is quite frightening since you can't do battle with an enemy you can't define.

It is mystifying why Florida, with population of 21.5 million, has only about 11% of the number of cases that New York, with a lower population of 19.5 million, has. But I would argue that this statistic on it's own does not negate the value of social distancing in holding down the rate of spread of the virus. We just don't know but logic says if you keep people separated then you restrict the unrestrained transmission of the virus.

 

[Gwolf]

The graphs in the presentation do make a compelling argument that social distancing measures may not be as effective as thought. What is needed is some measure of how much voluntary social distancing may be a factor as contrasted to mandated distancing. But that is probably nigh to impossible to determine. If it is determined that social distancing is not as effective as thought then the big question is what is the method how the virus is spreading? That unknown is quite frightening since you can't do battle with an enemy you can't define.

It is mystifying why Florida, with population of 21.5 million, has only about 11% of the number of cases that New York, with a lower population of 19.5 million, has. But I would argue that this statistic on it's own does not negate the value of social distancing in holding down the rate of spread of the virus. We just don't know but logic says if you keep people separated then you restrict the unrestrained transmission of the virus.

Florida don't have no subways and the population is not packed into a small area like New York. The figures don't matter to me. I have either already had it, or I am going to get it. I am not going to sit in front of the idiot box for 12 to 18 months hoping they will make a vaccine. I have things to do and I will be doing them. If they can make a vaccine, I will take it. If they don't, I will go on with my life pretty much like I always have. Faced a lot worse odds than the Covid19 a lot of times and survived it.

 

[bmccaffrey]

The only thing i will add is the more wide spread testing the more cases!!

 

[Freddy]

Just fill your hip flask with Dettol 'stead of bourbon. :2thumbs:












Sorrry - just being sarcastic. :firstplace:

 

[wyliec]

BajaRon,

This is more or less for you b/c I am responding to your post, and I have been told by someone hear to not quote just parts of a post. In general this relates to health issues and what people choose to do. I once commented to another Physical Therapist 60% of the patients we see in a hospital have issues created by their own life style, and she said it was more like 90%. I just said, if it weren’t for these patients, we’d be out of a job. So, I think people’s life style are their business, just don’t cough or sneeze or spit on me.:yikes:

My comment on patient percents was pre covid 19.