US Marine Corps Motorcycle Safety Study

[Dan_Ashley]

I believe this to be too extreme. We know that one drink is metabolized in about an hour. So, if I have a drink with dinner, it's a bit extreme to tell me I can't ryde the next morning. That being said, I agree we shouldn't ryde with alcohol on board.

That is actually a really good question, and the cleverness of the statement will obviously be subjected to a lot of controversy. This topic has been "studied to death." The published papers are buried someplace in my upstairs (quite messy) office. So, if you want citations, please ask and I'll provide them. But for the time being let me relate findings of a fairly large number of investigations.

It is a known fact that alcohol impairs judgement. Besides the other things it does, many of which I enjoy, the primary issue with motor vehicle operation is that it impairs judgement. At a .1 level judgement in most people is so severly impaired that driving is dangerous to themselves and to the community in which they are driving. At .00 judgement is not impaired. So the question is: when does impairment start, and how long does it last?

this has been studied over and over and over again. From a scientific standpoint we know the answer. Alcohol starts impairing judgement with ANY amount being introduced into the body--ANY amount. Generally, drving a car does not become dangerous until a concentration of .05 to .08 or so is reached. I have not found one single study that specifically addresses this same issue for motorcyclists.

However, I have found studies for airplane pilots. It was found that full and complete judgement was not restored until the subjects had a full nights sleep between drinking--ANY amount--and the tests which measued judgement. Let me repeat, how this applies to motorcycles, i do not know.

update: the airline pilot studies showed that ALL of the effects of alcohol had not COMPLETELY eliminated, even after BAC had returned to .00 until the subjects had a night of sleep. The reason for this is still being studied, but as of today, the reason for this apparently surprising outcome is not understood. There are several theories, but the mechanism of the judgement impairment after BAC returns to .00 is unknown. What is known is that the level of impairment remaining was slight.

 

[NancysToy]

I applaud you for looking at this as some kind of error, rather than instantly sensationalizing it, as many would do. I expect the numbers are an artifact of the very low population of 3-wheeled motorcycles, by comparison. There are also other possible factors, such as the age and experience of the riders. I hope you can analyze the data and justify it, but if not I appreciate your integrity not to hang your hat on it.

 

[Dan_Ashley]

.....not to hang your hat on it.

Thanks, but I don't have a hat, only a helmet (LOL). :doorag:

 

[Dan_Ashley]

I applaud you for looking at this as some kind of error, rather than instantly sensationalizing it, as many would do. I expect the numbers are an artifact of the very low population of 3-wheeled motorcycles, by comparison. There are also other possible factors, such as the age and experience of the riders. I hope you can analyze the data and justify it, but if not I appreciate your integrity not to hang your hat on it.

you are too kind. I think that I need to go back to the primary data. I was using aggregated data and my methods of use did not recognize the data is "cross contaminated", so to speak. It will be Wednesday next week before I can ferret out the right data. At least, I think I can get it finished by Wednesday. I am downloading the NHTSA data now, and I hope it is granular enough to analyze.

 

[gottago]

This past monday I was on the :spyder2: headed for school after work, going south on I15. I noticed a young lady in the lane to right of me two cars ahead and she kept looking down as she was driving. The next thing I know she has cut me off. If I had not been paying attention she would have taken the frunk off. I changed lanes and as I pluuled up her right I noticed her window was down. I got up next to her as the traffic stopped. I leaned over and yelled at her " DID YOY EVEN SEE ME? GET OFF OF YOUR :cus: PHONE BEFORE YOU KILL SOMEONE!" She looked at me and was ghost white :shocked::yikes:,she grabbed her streeing wheel very tight and drove off, and never looked at me again. I hope I saved someone in the future, but who knows.:banghead: This is the biggest threat to us on the road there is, imho. I think more of us need to bring these types of actions to the attention of the young ones out there.:chat:

:agree:

 

[Dan_Ashley]

Is it simple enough to state that there are so few three wheeled motorcycles?

You are at least 1/2 right. Maybe completely right, bu I can only confirm 1/2.

In 2011 in the entire nation there were six fatalites which were the result of three wheel motorcycle crashes. There is no possible way to make generalizations of any significance with only six data points.

I can only say that the statistics validate that 3 wheel motorcycles are A LOT safer than two wheelers. I cannot quantify the term "A lot." I want to, but with the amount of data available, a meaningful quantification is impossible.

There were about 6.7 million motorcycles registered in the US in 2007, but I can find absolutely no data on how many of those had 3 wheels. I know this: the Can Am Spyder has enjoyed a 12% compounded annual growth rate, when the overall motorcycle industry has had a 7% annual sales decline.

So, I think there are enough 3 wheel motorcycles to make a decent assessment of crash data. BUT there were, in fact, only six data points in 2011. Unfortunately, for the data analysis, that is...the non-fatal crashes are significantly under-reported. To make any meaningful safety assessments means that there is no real choice but to study fatalities. Fatalities are nearly 100% reported. Very few go un-reported.

So, I can't make any conclusions based on this data...nobody can. If anyone tries, they are just air bags.

If anyone has an idea that I might not have considered, please let me know...otherwise I am "dead in the water" on this one.

 

[gypsy_100]

There were about 6.7 million motorcycles registered in the US in 2007, but I can find absolutely no data on how many of those had 3 wheels. I know this: the Can Am Spyder has enjoyed a 12% compounded annual growth rate, when the overall motorcycle industry has had a 7% annual sales decline.

So, I think there are enough 3 wheel motorcycles to make a decent assessment of crash data. BUT there were, in fact, only six data points in 2011.

BRP sold 33,668 Spyders -- RS, GS and RT -- from 2008 thru 2012 in the US (from NHTSA recall info). But how many trike conversions are out there? We'll never know. And you are correct -- it takes large amounts of data to account for all the inconsistencies in reporting. The investigators don't have a fixed set of questions they must ask so key points about the crash can be missed. Like "did you ever take a motorcycle safety course?" And since the majority (>60%) of "motorcycle" accidents are single-vehicle, there may be no one to ask. Investigators just try to re-create the accident. I lost a friend last year to that. Mature, skilled rider on a great touring bike (Kawasaki Concours). Went off the road while going around a corner and hit a tree in exactly the wrong place. Accident discovered by a passing motorist. No explanation. I rode the corner on my two-wheeler multiple times after that to try to see what I could. Good sight lines, good pavement, etc. He did lock up the brakes as there was a skid mark in a straight line just before he left the road. Did a deer jump out? Did a cell-phone-impaired driver cross over the centerline? Never know.

Appreciate all the effort you put into this. Worthwhile attempt. This is why we need the new "Hurt" study at the U of Oklahoma. Let's hope that can stay on track and yield a definitive study.

 

[Dan_Ashley]

.This is why we need the new "Hurt" study at the U of Oklahoma. Let's hope that can stay on track and yield a definitive study.

I don't have the funding to replicate Dr. Hurt's research. However, given the very few fatalities experienced by riders of three wheel motorcycles, there is simply not enough data to analyze--even if there were adequate funding.

The only way I can see around this is for a multi-disciplinary research team consisting of vehicle engineers, statisticians, psychologists, and perhaps a some others to conduct research in a controlled labroratory/track setting, then to validate their findings against NTHSA published cases. Since doing this would undoubtedly destroy a number of vehicles, as well as crash dummies, and would require multiple high speed cameras, with engineers to assess the films ...on and on....then the whole thing would have to be published as a government study (to prevent lawsuits)...

This research would be prohibitively expensive-- especially in light of the fact that there were only SIX data points on all of 2011.

I don't think anyone, or any company, would be willing to fund an effort like this--especially when they could fund much less expensive studies about two wheelers--and could save more lives than by studying three wheelers.

I am disappointed that I can't complete this;
I am thrilled that three wheelers are a lot safer than two wheelers;
I understand now why my counter-intuitive results of three wheelers being 53% safer than cars occurred--I was unaware that the number of observations was too small to say anything meaningful.

oh well, even failed attempts at learning yield some positive benefits...

 

[gypsy_100]

I don't have the funding to replicate Dr. Hurt's research. However, given the very few fatalities experienced by riders of three wheel motorcycles, there is simply not enough data to analyze--even if there were adequate funding.

The only way I can see around this is for a multi-disciplinary research team consisting of vehicle engineers, statisticians, psychologists, and perhaps a some others to conduct research in a controlled labroratory/track setting, then to validate their findings against NTHSA published cases. Since doing this would undoubtedly destroy a number of vehicles, as well as crash dummies, and would require multiple high speed cameras, with engineers to assess the films ...on and on....then the whole thing would have to be published as a government study (to prevent lawsuits)...

This research would be prohibitively expensive-- especially in light of the fact that there were only SIX data points on all of 2011.

I don't think anyone, or any company, would be willing to fund an effort like this--especially when they could fund much less expensive studies about two wheelers--and could save more lives than by studying three wheelers.

I am disappointed that I can't complete this;
I am thrilled that three wheelers are a lot safer than two wheelers;
I understand now why my counter-intuitive results of three wheelers being 53% safer than cars occurred--I was unaware that the number of observations was too small to say anything meaningful.

oh well, even failed attempts at learning yield some positive benefits...

Agree with all your points. I was referring to the new study underway by Oklahoma State University to study 300 motorcycle crashes, significantly updating the classic Hurt study to reflect current times. The $3.1-million study includes $2 million from the highway reauthorization bill, $500,000 from the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration, $500,000 from individual states and $100,000 from the American Motorcyclist Assn. Unfortunately the study has been scaled down from the original proposal. The experts at the NTSB said 1200 crashes should be studied (Hurt did about 900 in his 1981 study). The cost of that full study would have been $8-9 million. The Motorcycle Safety Foundation, working with the motorcycle manufacturers like Harley, Honda, etc, committed just shy of $3 million towards the full study but the overall funding still came up short. So OSU proposed the smaller study of just 300 crashes. MSF kept its offer of funds on the table but only if the study includes at least 900 crashes. The abbreviated study is well underway and there's no indication we'll ever see the full study. Too bad. But let's hope the smaller study is well done and yields some useful information. Whether any three-wheeler crashes are included is anybody's guess.

 

[Dan_Ashley]

Agree with all your points. I was referring to the new study underway by Oklahoma State University to study 300 motorcycle crashes, significantly updating the classic Hurt study to reflect current times. The $3.1-million study includes $2 million from the highway reauthorization bill, $500,000 from the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration, $500,000 from individual states and $100,000 from the American Motorcyclist Assn. Unfortunately the study has been scaled down from the original proposal. The experts at the NTSB said 1200 crashes should be studied (Hurt did about 900 in his 1981 study). The cost of that full study would have been $8-9 million. The Motorcycle Safety Foundation, working with the motorcycle manufacturers like Harley, Honda, etc, committed just shy of $3 million towards the full study but the overall funding still came up short. So OSU proposed the smaller study of just 300 crashes. MSF kept its offer of funds on the table but only if the study includes at least 900 crashes. The abbreviated study is well underway and there's no indication we'll ever see the full study. Too bad. But let's hope the smaller study is well done and yields some useful information. Whether any three-wheeler crashes are included is anybody's guess.

I didn't know about the new study....do you have a contact name, number, email of any sort? I want to be involved, snd I am sure the principal investigators would welcome the help. (Remember, I have quite a background in research and analytics. Besides, this gives me something to do in retirement besides irritating my wife!)

 

[JJW SpyderRider]

I've always wondered if someone were to shoot a tester if they could plead self defense. But seriously it's only seems to be getting worse around here since Ohio made texting and driving against the law. It's even a primary offense for anyone under 18, but like I said it seems to worse than it was before the legislature got involved. I'm sure they feel they've done something for highway safety.

I be interested to see the results after the 2014's with all their "collision avoidance/prevention" devices have been out there for a few months how many of them are involved in distracted drive events.

Dan I really appreciate you efforts with this study.

Ride and ride safe,

Its not just the young drivers distracted while texting. I had a car weaving going down I-74 in IL today. When I passed the driver who was in her 50's I saw that she was holding a notepad behind the steering wheel and hand a pen in her hand. It looked like she was proofreading the document while she was driving :dontknow:.

 

[gypsy_100]

I didn't know about the new study....do you have a contact name, number, email of any sort? I want to be involved, snd I am sure the principal investigators would welcome the help. (Remember, I have quite a background in research and analytics. Besides, this gives me something to do in retirement besides irritating my wife!)

Wish I did but I don't. It may be close to wrapping up by now. Here's a link to the 2009 Oklahoma State University press release: https://news.okstate.edu/index.php/...major-study-into-causes-of-motorcycle-crashes

All I can suggest is contacting OSU to try to track it down.