Everybody expects an engine to loosen up as it completes its break-in milage and because a looser engine runs freer than a tight one, it follows that its mpg should be better. Also, it's easy to "feel" you are getting better mpg when you've carried out some kind of expensive change to the engine, in which case you would like to see a saving in mpg to offset your outlay.
Absolute mpg measurement of a motor is difficult to pin down outside of tightly controlled conditions. But you're right, wind strength/direction will require a motor to work more or less hard. A flat compared to a hilly route is another factor, as is the weight of the load being carried. My favorite variable affecting mpg is how I use my right hand. I know I get a better return when I'm in the mood to cruise, and noticeably less mpg when I speed up. Unfortunately my wife also knows this and she reminds me when I waste gas by riding too fast! Gas per liter in the UK is only a little less expensive than cabinet-quality wine! :sour: