Prudence or Panic?

[BajaRon]

According to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System, total U.S. deaths for the month of March 2020 are 15% LESS than the average of the past 4 years.

We can speculate as to why. But those are the hard numbers. 34,000 fewer deaths in the month of March than the 4 year average.

[IdahoMtnSpyder]

According to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System, total U.S. deaths for the month of March 2020 are 15% LESS than the average of the past 4 years.

We can speculate as to why. But those are the hard numbers. 34,000 fewer deaths in the month of March than the 4 year average.

Boise EMTs are reporting as many ambulance runs in a day as they used to do per shift. Police are reporting fewer auto accidents. The stay at home order is having some interesting effects aside from slowing the Covid-19 virus spread.

[h0gr1der]

According to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System, total U.S. deaths for the month of March 2020 are 15% LESS than the average of the past 4 years.

We can speculate as to why. But those are the hard numbers. 34,000 fewer deaths in the month of March than the 4 year average.

I just saw a report on the R0 communicability factor being much higher than previously reported. IT was first estimated around the mid 2's, not their claiming it's in the mid 5 range. Which may mean it is far more widespread, and therefore less lethal than projected. Pure speculation of course. But I still have to avoid it like the plague because of health issues.

[wyliec]

Boise EMTs are reporting as many ambulance runs in a day as they used to do per shift. Police are reporting fewer auto accidents. The stay at home order is having some interesting effects aside from slowing the Covid-19 virus spread.

I agree. But when I went to the CDC site (copy/paste DC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System), it shows influenza and pneumonia only. I'm not quite sure what BajaRon was getting at, and don't want to assume. I do have an assumption though, but don't want to say.

[BajaRon]

I agree. But when I went to the CDC site (copy/paste DC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System), it shows influenza and pneumonia only. I'm not quite sure what BajaRon was getting at, and don't want to assume. I do have an assumption though, but don't want to say.

My last quote was for all causes. Not just illnesses. If that is what you are referring to.

[wyliec]

My last quote was for all causes. Not just illnesses. If that is what you are referring to.

Can you link me to it? I can only get to what I mentioned above.

[BajaRon]

Can you link me to it? I can only get to what I mentioned above.

I am having trouble finding the exact report that I took my posted information from. There are probably thousands of links on Google pertaining to the subject. But this one is very close. I hope it is good enough. If you discover that the information is not correct. Let me know and I will amend my post. Unfortunately, it seems that these days, everyone has an agenda, an ax to grind, and they don't mind stretching the truth, or even fabricating it, to achieve their goals. That is not where I want to be.

http://dailyheadlines.com/this-is-st...20DH.COM%206PM

[Gwolf]

I am having trouble finding the exact report that I took my posted information from. There are probably thousands of links on Google pertaining to the subject. But this one is very close. I hope it is good enough. If you discover that the information is not correct. Let me know and I will amend my post. Unfortunately, it seems that these days, everyone has an agenda, an ax to grind, and they don't mind stretching the truth, or even fabricating it, to achieve their goals. That is not where I want to be.

http://dailyheadlines.com/this-is-st...20DH.COM%206PM

I don't know if the figures are accurate or not, but it is not hard to understand how that could be correct. Almost any deaths now of a person with the virus are attributed to the virus. If they have the virus and died of a heart attack, it was the virus. With that in mind, all the deaths attributed to other factors in previous years are not any more numerous, but are now being attributed to the virus. Most of the population is staying home. Automobile accidents, teen driving accidents, many other causes of death in previous years would naturally be down for this year. People are not out there, drinking and driving, speeding, or engaging in other risky behaviors. They are staying home.

[bmccaffrey]

Almost every toe tag says covid-19 no matter what the cause if death. Sad!!

[BajaRon]

Almost every toe tag says covid-19 no matter what the cause if death. Sad!!

Funny you should mention this. Apparently the number of general flu related deaths are down by quite a bit this year. Again, there are a number of variables that might contribute to the lower numbers. But the accusation is that people passing away from the regular flu are being counted as Corona Virus victims. Not that this is necessarily due to any attempt to purposefully skew the numbers. But attributed it to lazy, inaccurate reporting.

I wonder if we will ever know what actually is happening.

[Mazo EMS2]

Funny you should mention this. Apparently the number of general flu related deaths are down by quite a bit this year. Again, there are a number of variables that might contribute to the lower numbers. But the accusation is that people passing away from the regular flu are being counted as Corona Virus victims. Not that this is necessarily due to any attempt to purposefully skew the numbers. But attributed it to lazy, inaccurate reporting.

I wonder if we will ever know what actually is happening.

Unfortunately a lot of deaths are being reported "as a result Covid related complications".....This seems like an awful broad statement. It certainly leaves a lot of opportunity to skew numbers. I don't honestly believe that we will ever know how many lives were directly lost to the virus. My personal hunch is that it is a much lower number than we are being lead to believe.

[IdahoMtnSpyder]

Unfortunately a lot of deaths are being reported "as a result Covid related complications".....This seems like an awful broad statement. It certainly leaves a lot of opportunity to skew numbers. I don't honestly believe that we will ever know how many lives were directly lost to the virus. My personal hunch is that it is a much lower number than we are being lead to believe.

On the other hand there are reportedly many deaths where the deceased showed corona virus symptoms and was never tested. From what I've read WHO rules state no death is listed as a Covid-19 death if the deceased was not tested with positive results. If that's the case then the number of C-19 deaths could actually be significantly underreported.

[bikerbillone]

Two words, "WHO sucks".

[stmike 1800]

WHO is totally corrupt ,and ran by thieves .

[bikerbillone]

After reading this thread until my eyes glazed over, I have determined that post #16 with the Walmart experience by 'canam' is the best. Going to Walmart and feelng good when ya come out is impossible. Wife went to pick up a prescription, got three items, tried to check out, lines at self check out were tight and long, one cashier with another impossible line. Wife said she saw no one with toilet paper, remember back in the 'old days' when ya could go the paper products aisle and there was TP as far as the eye could see? Folks, it's a crazy world out there.

[ARtraveler]

We are avoiding even going near WalMart. We have always used the local (to us) supermarket about 5 miles from home. They also have gas and pharmacy. Changed out our scrips from WM to there. Can now pick them up from the drive through. No lines. And I was even able to get TP just by asking last time...limit 1 pkg of course. I guess one of the advantages of small town country.

[bikerbillone]

Traveler, you are in the right place, small town NW AR. I've often thought thought about Mtn Home AR, but then getting a bit long in the tooth to move.

[ARtraveler]

Traveler, you are in the right place, small town NW AR. I've often thought thought about Mtn Home AR, but then getting a bit long in the tooth to move.

Mountain Home about 25 miles NE. Nice, but a little more "big city" than where we are now. Also considered MH, but glad we found this gem.

[BajaRon]

WHO is totally corrupt ,and ran by thieves .

If I was not concerned about getting in trouble for it.... I'd agree with you 100%! Maybe even add the UN to the list. That is, if I were going to post, which I'm not. Just thinking out loud...

Lamont is always accusing me of having 'Negative Waves!'. I'm not having negative waves. I'm just riding them!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncbEucjsNFU

[ARtraveler]

Mod talk:

Let's leave things where they are about uno what. Everyone is fine for now.

[bmccaffrey]

Funny you should mention this. Apparently the number of general flu related deaths are down by quite a bit this year. Again, there are a number of variables that might contribute to the lower numbers. But the accusation is that people passing away from the regular flu are being counted as Corona Virus victims. Not that this is necessarily due to any attempt to purposefully skew the numbers. But attributed it to lazy, inaccurate reporting.

I wonder if we will ever know what actually is happening.

I doubt it Ron. If people die from respiratory death automatic corona. No test . They say waste of test kit. Numbers will never be accurate

[IdahoMtnSpyder]

I doubt it Ron. If people die from respiratory death automatic corona. No test . They say waste of test kit. Numbers will never be accurate

Numbers will never be accurate simply because there are so many variables at play. Here are a couple of CDC pages that are kind of interesting. In order for a death to be listed as Covid-19 caused there has to be some evidence that it really could be. One of the factors complicating determinations is this quote.

At this time, there is little influenza virus circulation so the elevated proportion of people presenting with these symptoms is likely due to COVID-19, but may be tempered by a number of factors including less ILI overall because of widespread adoption of social distancing efforts as well as changes in healthcare seeking practices.

Since flu virus is circulating less then you would expect flu deaths to be down, but flu-like deaths are plentiful. The conclusion is then that it most likely is Covid-19. But those deaths are supposed to be annotated as presumptive in the absence of a positive test. So in the end the best we can hope for are reasonably accurate educated guesses.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...iew/index.html

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

People obviously are not living in a historically normal manner so that naturally throws everything into a mess that has been based on people's normal patterns of living.