Coronavirus contd. - some perspective

[BLUEKNIGHT911]

I just googled - FLU , in the USA since 2010 the avg. number of deaths per year was between 15 and 80,000 …. in 2019 it was 80,000 DEATHS ….. so to me the Coronavirus has a long way to go to even come remotely close to the danger of getting the FLU …… and in my earlier thread about this subject, I stated what my amount of supplies were …. what I didn't say was - I hadn't stockpiled any of it, this was what I found in my Freezer and cupboard. To me it was just the normal amount of provisions I always have. ….. and I live alone. So no need to panic , just keep in mind if you have little or nothing in the way of supplies, you might want to give it some thought ….. wishing everyone all the best and try and stay healthy ..... Mike

[pegasus1300]

But that would be true Mike just as an ordinary everyday precaution. One never knows when something could cause you to have to depend on what you have on hand for a few days/weeks. The hysteria over this virus is getting way out of hand. Use common sense and wash your hands a lot.

[RapidSpyder]

I going to take anything from the media with a grain of salt. Too much power there by a certain few to influence what we think and take as “fact”, after all if it’s on tv or the internet it’s got to be true.

[Saluda]

Read an interesting article about your "personal space" and how you should keep people back. Transmission of mist while talking , coughing, sneezing etc.

[SPECTACUALR SPIDERMAN]

the only thing about covid19 is it currently has a higher death rate, mostly on the elderly ~ 2% where as the flu has 0.1%. Stupidity kills more then both combined. Just ride with a helmet on & have fun.

[billybovine]

An overall perspective is good Mike. My perspective, from the news reports and articles I have read. The death rate is about 2%. My guess it is a little lower than that. Maybe as low as 1%. The count of those that have died is likely fairly accurate. But the count of those that have/had the disease is likely low. That is still a lot higher than influenza. 80% will have no to mild symtoms. The big concern is the 20% that are left. How much care will they need? For how long? What pace will the disease spread? Those factors will determine the load on the healthcare system.

A few back of the envelope calculations. Note a lot of assumptions on my part.
At 50% infection rate and a death rate of 1%. That would make the number of deaths in the US of about 1.6 million. Worldwide that would be about 39 million. Compared to the flu to about 450 thousand, worldwide, a year. Compared to the 1918 FLU. For a long time it was thought to be about 50 million. But it was looked at in recent years and the estimate revised to be about 100 million.

Bottom line is 99% of us are going to survive.

[h0gr1der]

One caveat to that we're all OK thing. Every health reporting agency is spewing the litany of it killing the old and infirm, especially those with underlying conditions. Care to venture a guess about how many of us fit that demographic that are on this site? I am one of those warned, and personally my death would disappoint me greatly by messing up my riding season!

As an aside, it's funny that one of the first people to die was the medical person that blew the whistle on the whole mess, and he was 34 years old, without any visible infirmities. I just wonder how valid a lot of this stuff is? We will know beyond any doubt in about 3 to 6 months one way or the other.

[ARtraveler]

One thing the CV panic has accomplished is to hurt the stock market. For the last week, I have lost a thousand dollars a day from my 401K. This morning, they say the market is on the rise again. Hope they are right.

I follow the end of day closing numbers on my 401K.

[BajaRon]

Remember the Swine Flu, back in 2009? It is an interesting study to compare these 2 events and the differences in response. (Flu is a Virus so they are comparable at least in this aspect)

Swine Flu discovered and identified as a probable Pandemic, April 2009.
Corona Virus discovered and identified as a probable Pandemic, January 7th, 2020

Public Health Emergency declared and travel restrictions implemented for Swine Flu, October 2009. (6 month lag)
Public Health Emergency declared and travel restrictions implemented for Corona Virus, January 31, 2020 (24 day lag)

Conditions (United States Only) when Emergency actions were Implemented - Swine Flu
Several Million Infections
More than 20,000 had been hospitalized
More than 1,000 confirmed deaths

Conditions (United States Only) when Emergency actions were implemented - Corona Virus
Number of infections - 7
Number hospitalized (have not been able to find this number. But maximum would have been 7)
Number of deaths - 0

It appears that the response to this pandemic has been much more aggressive than the response to the Swine Flu pandemic. I, for one, am glad to see it. Hopefully, the results will equal the effort.

[billybovine]

One thing the CV panic has accomplished is to hurt the stock market. For the last week, I have lost a thousand dollars a day from my 401K. This morning, they say the market is on the rise again. Hope they are right.

I follow the end of day closing numbers on my 401K.

The Dow is up 3% at 12:40 PM. Could be just a dead cat bounce. Too soon to tell. Need to wait a couple days. The market was overvalued and needed to correct anyway. It just needed an excuse to do it.

[Tango]

One thing the CV panic has accomplished is to hurt the stock market. For the last week, I have lost a thousand dollars a day from my 401K. This morning, they say the market is on the rise again. Hope they are right.

I follow the end of day closing numbers on my 401K.

Sit tight grasshopper. I have been afraid to look. It will rise once again. Tom

[BLUEKNIGHT911]

One thing the CV panic has accomplished is to hurt the stock market. For the last week, I have lost a thousand dollars a day from my 401K. This morning, they say the market is on the rise again. Hope they are right.

I follow the end of day closing numbers on my 401K.

Yep the market ( so far ) is making a come-back ( and I was pretty sure it would ) ….. the only effect of stock market losses is ….IF YOU HAD TO SELL …… I didn't ( thank God) so it was only mildly interesting …… good luck … Mike

[BLUEKNIGHT911]

Sit tight grasshopper. I have been afraid to look. It will rise once again. Tom

" don't bother looking " …. it should rise after all the hoopla is over …...Mike

[LeftCoast]

looks like about 6 deaths so far

[BajaRon]

looks like about 6 deaths so far

This is the chart I have been following. This one is managed by John Hopkins University. Seems to be living up to the reputation of this institution for honest and accuracy.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

It is updated live 24 hours a day. You can see when it was last updated and has been as current and accurate as anything I've looked at. Very interactive. You can click on each location/nation listed on the left and get specific numbers. And it gives a good, overall tracking of Cases/Recovered/Deaths on the right. Things have been accelerating in the US if you go with percentages. But numbers are still low.

I agree with billybovine on the stock market angle. It needed an adjustment and now it's found an anchor to throw overboard. But there isn't, yet, any real reason for the current drop in stock prices. And if the Corona Virus turns out to be anything less than the doom and gloom hype it's been getting. I'd say your stock prices will go through the roof. If you don't need that money in the next several months. I think you'll do just fine.

You only lock in your losses when you sell....

Of course, my opinion is probably not worth what it is costing you!

[LeftCoast]

Great website! Thanks!

[Cobwebs]

Can't hurt to prepare for the worst with the virus.If it doesn't get you (and plenty are saying it's inevitable everyone will contract it at some point) the supply chain disruption will.
Picture a shutdown of business big enough to tip the over leveraged financial system into the toilet and lockup of the banking system.How do you pay for anything with no card ?

[bmccaffrey]

After looking at the statistics sounds like the Caribbean is the place to go LOL!!!!

[BoilerAnimal]

Just remember, if you take enough letters out of pandemic, you get panic!

[BajaRon]

Can't hurt to prepare for the worst with the virus.If it doesn't get you (and plenty are saying it's inevitable everyone will contract it at some point) the supply chain disruption will.
Picture a shutdown of business big enough to tip the over leveraged financial system into the toilet and lockup of the banking system.How do you pay for anything with no card ?

You should start an academy for motivational visionaries!

[Cobwebs]

You should start an academy for motivational visionaries!

Great idea Ron, sign up here, classes starting soon:-

Sheeple Academy
Mainstream Avenue
Derivativesville 2020

Only requirments are……
Ability to separate from flock
Basic grip of off button on television
Willingness to repay 240 trillion dollars before borrowing again


Course completion provides a solid grounding in how you can't buy your way out of debt and an insight into how a virus can take the blame away from the banksters.

[LeftCoast]

Back to OP topic please!

[ARtraveler]

Tick...tick...tick...

[canamjhb]

BajaRon, I found your recommended web site to be very informative. Real-time data that appears to be accurate. I bookmarked it. Will be interesting to follow the numbers of new cases and recoveries over the next few weeks..... Jim

[ARtraveler]

BlueKnight has also requested this thread be closed because of the hijacks.

Site rule #7 applies, IMO.

The moderators are NOT here to censor, but to enforce the site rules.