Prudence or Panic?

[BajaRon]

Perspective... It's invaluable to any process of determining what actions should be taken in any situation. But it seems that perspective is exactly what is missing from the world today. Could it be that we have exchanged the wide view for tunnel vision, and swapped out the forest for the trees? Have we abandoned the panorama for the microscope?

While everyone is so concerned about the coronavirus, there is an even deadlier virus that seems to be completely off the radar: the flu. According to the the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The same people who give us current information on the coronavirus), has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza, the common flu, between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020 (5 months), and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000. You have to wonder. If the numbers for a known milady that we have been dealing with for years can be off by as much as 150%. How accurate can we expect the numbers for a brand new, previously unknown affliction to be? But I digress.

The CDC also estimates that up to 31 million Americans have caught the flu during this same 5 month period, with 210,000 to 370,000 flu sufferers hospitalized because of the virus.

So, in the last 5 months we have had as many as 31 million Americans get the flu, and as many as 30,000 die from it. And this happens, pretty much, every year. With no interactive charts. No daily (or hourly) updates. No executive orders from the president or billion dollar, emergency bills passed through the legislature. No one fighting over a package of toilet paper. Not a single school or business closed. No one ordered to stay at home under threat of arrest. Why not? I think it is simply the known vs the unknown. And our lack of perspective.

[BLUEKNIGHT911]

:agree: .... why is this ???? ..... imho it's because the FLU has been around for CENTURY's ..... and the treatment is well known ..... as far as the Stock Market is concerned - Remember the well publicized Dow Jones is based on .... only about 40 stocks ..... what the 10,000 other stocks are doing isn't mentioned. My portfolio doesn't include ANY of those Top 40 and hasn't been affected too much ..... just some perspective ..... stay safe all ..... Mike :ohyea:

[Arion]

To borrow a line from The Thirteenth Warrior, "Panic profits a man nothing."

[wyliec]

Baja,

You have forced me to come back on here.

We have all heard the stories that the flu shot is useless because they don't ever get it, and they don't get the flu. Others say they weren't getting the flu shot, but b/c where they work it is required, and they ended up getting sick. Others, like myself get the flu shot, and don't get the flu. Still others get the flu shot, and some still get the flu. But, how many would die if there was no flu shot? So, maybe some of those (12000-30000) that die from the flu may be from not getting the flu shot.

Now, the Coronas virus, there has been no shot developed for it. So, do we go about business as usual as they try to develop the anti-coronas virus shot???

The take away from this is how many of the 12000-30000 that die from the flu didn't get a shot? Those numbers could be significantly less?

I know this is a stretch, but I don't think you are comparing apples to apples, regarding deaths (from flu to corona virus).

[ARtraveler]

Just a hint folks.

Let's not get technical unless you are an expert in the subject.

We don't mind people talking about CV...but unless you have expert credentials...let's not put things out there that are not proven fact.

This is not a medical information site. So let's not imply it is.

This statement has appeared in the other CV threads.

The moderators are just trying to make sure that no "bad" information gets posted concerning the virus. We have already had some complaints that we are allowing people to post information that may or may not be correct.

One has suggested that we kill all virus threads because of the possibility of mis-information.

We do not wish to do that...

We are treading a fine line here...so please bear with us.

[canamjhb]

Thank you, AR. T. Even though I am Spyderless (at the moment) I still visit here often. There are many people that contribute here who I respect and appreciate. I participate in other forums too but none of them are as active or well run as this one. My day is not complete without checking in here. Now with social distancing and in some cases, stay at home orders, I think it's important to maintain a good positive support network. Checking in here is part of mine..... Jim

[Dommy]

Hi all.

I do not have a Spyder at the moment and perhaps I won't get one for some years ahead (I have 3 motorcycles), but I joined this forum because I like very much this machine and I was looking for some info about it. That's why I'm here.

I live in the Italian town of Vicenza, in between Verona and Venice, about 200 Km east of Milan.
I'd like to give some info to you in the US, based on what is going on here in Italy - hope this can contribute to understand the virus topic and help around:

1) This large virus outbreak and high death toll in Italy (mainly Northern area) probably was caused by a combination of these factors:

- Despite local authorities here knew well what was going on in China, they did not implement social distancing measures with good time margin (in the hope not to disrupt business activities too much). When they reacted, it was already late and the business is seriously disrupted now.

- I can make an effort to appreciate local authorities' attempt to have social distancing measures implemented, but sometimes measures were communicated either in an ineffective way or simply measures were contradictory.
For example, about 2 weeks ago, while the Prime Minister was preparing with his staff the first country lockdown plan, the news leaked out to the public and thousands of people took trains to escape Milan in the North to head down to the South:clap:
For example, in Milan the underground railway (tube) is still open and working, although with less train departures - I used the tube for may years in the past and it's a perfect place for public gatherings :clap:
I understand that the tube is instead closed in New York and this is logic.

- Italian people, especially the young, are not exactly the most disciplined to adhere to the lockdown measures, such that authorities are more and more reinforcing the lockdown by a capillary control on the territory with police and army forces :(

- Italy's population is made by a lot of elderly and they're unfortunately the first exposed people.

- But probably, one of the most important contributors to the sad current situation (high death toll) is that the Italian National Health Service (NHS) underwent continuous under funding over the last 20-30 years.
This means that in hospitals there are no enough doctors, nurses, equipment (respirators, masks, bad maintained air conditioning system in hospitals and swab kits) and so the NHS is struggling to keep pace with the overwhelming number of ill people.
Swab kits are essential to map the contagion cases and isolating them - without this you cannot really know where the virus can hit and prevent other contagion cases (I understand that South Korea and Japan were very good at this).

- The most affected area in Italy is the "Pianura Padana" area, including the Lombardia and Veneto regions (main towns there are Milan and Verona respectively). That area is flat and surrounded by the Alps mountains in the north, the weather is quite stable (no major winds and rain in January, February and March) and the air is very polluted by the industrial activity (manufacturing facilities and road traffic). Air pollution does not help lunges. THis area is Italy's powerhouse.

- And last, but not least, COVID-19 is not exactly the typical pneumonia caused by the flu - it's more aggressive than that. It's so aggressive that now local virologists start to think that the virus has already mutated and it's more dangerous than it was in China.

Please, stay healthy :pray:

[BajaRon]

Because this is such an emotional subject. Objectivity can be scarce sometimes. Especially when the 'Experts' who are supposed to know. Are many times guessing right along with you and I.

I agree with Arion. Panic can easily do more harm than good in any situation. Because panic tends to disconnect the brain and rational thinking from the equation.

In response to you wyliec, I am glad that you 'Came Back'. It's been awhile since I have seen a post from you. I am sorry that you felt compelled because of my post. Certainly the 2 viruses are not identical. And I was not trying to say they were. It is just interesting to me that the numbers for the 'Regular' flu, if we can call it that, are horrendous compared to the Corona Virus. It appears that the perceived potential of this new virus has to be driving the reaction.

To ARtraveler. I assume this is general advise and I do not take it personally. I agree that bad advise is always, well, bad. I do not claim to be an expert, and I hope I am giving no one the impression that I am. I am giving no medical advise. I am not proposing that anyone do anything other than what the authorities are prescribing. Or that what the government is doing is wrong. It is always wise to take precautions. The information posted is readily verifiable on the CDC website.

The human experience has always fascinated me. What causes otherwise civil people to fight (some viciously) over a package of toilet paper in a grocery store? To strip shelves all over the nation? And for some, to huddle in fear inside their homes?

According to all reports. The gun and ammunition industry is having difficulties keeping up with the record demand for these products. Prudence or Panic?

My sister-in-law went to the grocery store in Atascadero, California on Saturday because they were out of some staple items. One of her best friends found out about it and was furiously angry at her for doing so. And I suspect that this kind of reaction is not isolated. I don't think we should be stoic about all of this. But being a bit more rational, I think for some, would be a better approach.

[Devious56]

BajaRon, thank you for your post, but then, I happen to agree with ou . When is the last time you heard the media go off about the many deaths caused by any Flu virus, even though every year there are thousands. The media in the past couple of day showed the fron page of a paper with the story of that basketball players death from the helecopter crash. Right next to it was a story of the Corona virus, so it really isn't that new. And as for the thought that the forum is in it's right to censor what is written here, I guess that is one of the reasons I don't participate as much as I used to. EVERYONE is entitled to their own opinion, as long as it is presented in an intellegent manner. If they are incorrect, how else can they learn if they are not presented all the FACTS?

[Rob Rodriguez]

Based on the presidential press conference today it looks like your question has been answered.

[ARtraveler]

Because this is such an emotional subject. Objectivity can be scarce sometimes. Especially when the 'Experts' who are supposed to know. Are many times guessing right along with you and I.

I agree with Arion. Panic can easily do more harm than good in any situation. Because panic tends to disconnect the brain and rational thinking from the equation.

In response to you wyliec, I am glad that you 'Came Back'. It's been awhile since I have seen a post from you. I am sorry that you felt compelled because of my post. Certainly the 2 viruses are not identical. And I was not trying to say they were. It is just interesting to me that the numbers for the 'Regular' flu, if we can call it that, are horrendous compared to the Corona Virus. It appears that the perceived potential of this new virus has to be driving the reaction.

To ARtraveler. I assume this is general advise and I do not take it personally. I agree that bad advise is always, well, bad. I do not claim to be an expert, and I hope I am giving no one the impression that I am. I am giving no medical advise. I am not proposing that anyone do anything other than what the authorities are prescribing. Or that what the government is doing is wrong. It is always wise to take precautions. The information posted is readily verifiable on the CDC website.

The human experience has always fascinated me. What causes otherwise civil people to fight (some viciously) over a package of toilet paper in a grocery store? To strip shelves all over the nation? And for some, to huddle in fear inside their homes?

According to all reports. The gun and ammunition industry is having difficulties keeping up with the record demand for these products. Prudence or Panic?

My sister-in-law went to the grocery store in Atascadero, California on Saturday because they were out of some staple items. One of her best friends found out about it and was furiously angry at her for doing so. And I suspect that this kind of reaction is not isolated. I don't think we should be stoic about all of this. But being a bit more rational, I think for some, would be a better approach.

Yes, general advice. We are not picking anyone out. Just follow basic common sense with the subjects and we are good.

[BoilerAnimal]

Some good reading from one of the country's foremost medical centers.

https://www.globalhealthnow.org/2020-02/coronavirus-expert-reality-check

It's a pretty sobering assessment of the global situation. It's also based on science. No wishful thinking or comforting platitudes, just a large dose of reality.

This coronavirus death toll will far exceed 30,000 dead. There are worst case scenario estimates that the number of dead in the US alone, could approach close to 2,000,000 dead. This is far, far more serious than the seasonal flu.

The only way we can avoid a worst case is to follow social distancing recommendations to the letter, along with any other medical advice the experts can give as more knowledge becomes available.

I fear that after years of deriding science, too many citizens will be inpart, or totally, sceptical of any guidance that may be given by the experts in a position to best get us through this nightmare. If people don't closely follow guidelines as they are given, everyday life could quickly devolve into a Stephen King type existence.

If, however, everyone gets on board and does their best to fight this virus, things will get better as quickly as possible. There will be hardships. Life will not be idyllic. But we will get through this. It won't be easy or quick.

If, on the other hand, we ignore or flat out disbelieve what the experts tell us and we go about our collective merry way, the outcome will be anything but merry. The death toll will be horrendous, the effects on the economy will be dire and life as we know know it could very well come to an end for a very long time. The social construct of our country could be destroyed if we don't get through this together.

We need to heed the consensus of the scientific and medical community experts to get us through these trying times as quickly and with as little pain as possible. It won't be easy, but it is vitally important that everyone does their part.

Decisions need to be made on fact based science and not on political expediency. This will be a long battle against an invisible virus. Let's get through this as a united country, with as few casualties as possible.

[PMK]

People will live, people will die. Same concept as every other day, with a twist on the cause of death.

Each person should find there own comfort level and ability to contend with the specific situation presented in front of them.

Death is a sad thing, but it happens. Accomplish what you must before you pass so that when your time arrives, you hopefully can be at peace with yourself that you lived a good life.

Sadly, a crisis like this brings out the worst in many people, and can bring out the best in others. Be your best, help others when possible, avoid your risks, and accept what you must when the time comes.

[h0gr1der]

Some good reading from one of the country's foremost medical centers.

https://www.globalhealthnow.org/2020-02/coronavirus-expert-reality-check

It's a pretty sobering assessment of the global situation. It's also based on science. No wishful thinking or comforting platitudes, just a large dose of reality.

This coronavirus death toll will far exceed 30,000 dead. There are worst case scenario estimates that the number of dead in the US alone, could approach close to 2,000,000 dead. This is far, far more serious than the seasonal flu.

The only way we can avoid a worst case is to follow social distancing recommendations to the letter, along with any other medical advice the experts can give as more knowledge becomes available.

I fear that after years of deriding science, too many citizens will be inpart, or totally, sceptical of any guidance that may be given by the experts in a position to best get us through this nightmare. If people don't closely follow guidelines as they are given, everyday life could quickly devolve into a Stephen King type existence.

If, however, everyone gets on board and does their best to fight this virus, things will get better as quickly as possible. There will be hardships. Life will not be idyllic. But we will get through this. It won't be easy or quick.

If, on the other hand, we ignore or flat out disbelieve what the experts tell us and we go about our collective merry way, the outcome will be anything but merry. The death toll will be horrendous, the effects on the economy will be dire and life as we know know it could very well come to an end for a very long time. The social construct of our country could be destroyed if we don't get through this together.

We need to heed the consensus of the scientific and medical community experts to get us through these trying times as quickly and with as little pain as possible. It won't be easy, but it is vitally important that everyone does their part.

Decisions need to be made on fact based science and not on political expediency. This will be a long battle against an invisible virus. Let's get through this as a united country, with as few casualties as possible.

Mr. Boileranimal,
I think the health organizations brought on a lot of their own derision and skepticism. I know why they did it (to make the PPE available to front line medical personnel), but the statements like "You (normal citizens) don't need masks" and "Masks aren't effective" while anyone who can have a thought is watching every single front line responder wearing masks and wondering what kind of moron do they think I am. If they would have simply said the truth about conserving for the responders and using social distancing things may have been much smoother.

[Navydad]

We are staying home. We have enough of everything to last us a month or more, but then we always have enough on hand to last awhile. It's just the way we have always done things. I refuse to panic over TP or anything else. It will be whatever it will be and the only things I can control are my own actions. Our daughter is an RN and she is currently working in a doctors office with no masks or any other protective gear. All the PPE has been taken to the area set up for virus patients if/when it hits our area. My wife who loves to sew is making masks for our daughter and her co-workers in her office because as my daughter says "there are many other nasty things we deal with besides Corona on a daily basis and we sure could use masks." Will this make a difference? Who knows, but the folks in this office are tickled and my wife feels she is contributing something. She thinks maybe she can be part of the solution rather than part of the problem. Our daughters hubby is a nurse practitioner and has a voracious thirst for knowledge. He gave us a heads up when this virus was just starting to pop up in the news. " This is going to get ugly. Corona Viruses have been around for many years, but this is a new variation and we have no defense against it. We will see a problem when, not if, it gets here." Now that it's here he suggests we steer clear from people and just follow the guidelines being handed to us. The man doesn't know a screwdriver from a shoestring, but in this type of situation he's good to have around. He and my daughter work for the same health system and have been told to be ready to go where needed on a moments notice and plan on being there for the duration. What makes it more fun is that their oldest daughter, our oldest grandkid, has decided to follow them and is a nurse in a nursing home. If I ever need any mechanical help around here I'm out of luck, but if I grab my chest and fall over I'll be in great hands. That's pretty much how it is at our house. Our daughter, her hubby, and our granddaughter will be on the front lines. Our son is an eighteen year Navy man currently in Norfolk. "I have a couple of hundred people I am responsible for, I don't have time to panic over TP or anything else" he said. Me? Well, when our daughter and hubby gets the call we will have the other three granddaughters ranging in age from 8 to 15. I will be designated head of entertainment. They all like the Spyder, but the weather and the virus may keep it in the garage so I may have to get creative. They are also homeschooling while this is going down and it has been many years since I have schooled for anything. Wish me luck as I know one teacher who may get in trouble for drinking on the job. Stay well and may we all get through this so we can meet on the road soon.

[canamjhb]

I needed some things from the store, toothpaste, mouthwash, and a couple other things. To avoid the craziness happening at my local grocery store I decided to take advantage of the "special" senior shopping time offered by Walmart. Walmart is reserving time for seniors only from 6AM to 7AM on Tuesdays. So I got to Walmart right at 6 this morning. This is a huge store with a huge parking lot. The lot was about 3/4th full. They had one person at the entrance letting 10 people in at a time with a minute or so between groups. The line to get in wrapped around the front, down the side, and half way across the back of the store. As I walked towards the end of the line I overheard one guy saying he had been in line since 4AM! Everything was very orderly but also sureal. It took me a half hour to get into the store and 20 minutes to shop and check out. This was my first, and last, experience with senior-only shopping time. When I left the store at 6:50AM there was no line to get in. My attempt to avoid panic shopping sure backfired on me. This was crazy. Never again..... Jim

[IdahoMtnSpyder]

Here's the map of active cases from the John Hopkins University coronavirus live update website. The country looks like it's suffering from a case of measles. What I see disturbingly striking is just how widespread the cases are. Note that many of the dots represent as few as one case. No state in the country is free of the virus, although many counties still are. To see the map in interactive mode go to https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.

179808

[Lew L]

After looking at the map above (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html) I'm really glad to live in Nevada. Even though we had 3" of partly cloudy and below average temps yesterday.

Lew L

[bmccaffrey]

Well i retired last Wednesday 2 weeks earlier than i anticipated do to we shut down. Friday we got 8" snow. Purchased a new 18 F3 Limited late last fall. Got to pit 100 miles on it before storing for the winter. Now the roads are crappy with sand ans salt so can't ride quite yet.Just to change the thread up a little. Have my own take on the virus. It is a different type of respiratory disease with sharp points that attach to the lungs. Making the lungs more susceptible for bacteria. We will get through this together and only that way. Together we will win divided we will fall.
For a take on Wyliec . He was or still is in health care. None of us or authorities on this even they are confused. So that being said all ride safe and social distance until we can gather again

[BLUEKNIGHT911]

Well i retired last Wednesday 2 weeks earlier than i anticipated do to we shut down. Friday we got 8" snow. Purchased a new 18 F3 Limited late last fall. Got to pit 100 miles on it before storing for the winter. Now the roads are crappy with sand ans salt so can't ride quite yet.Just to change the thread up a little. Have my own take on the virus. It is a different type of respiratory disease with sharp points that attach to the lungs. Making the lungs more susceptible for bacteria. We will get through this together and only that way. Together we will win divided we will fall.
For a take on Wyliec . He was or still is in health care. None of us or authorities on this even they are confused. So that being said all ride safe and social distance until we can gather again

Your retirement :clap::clap::clap:.....................:thumbup:.. .... Mike :ohyea:

[grumpyoldretiredcop]

Ron,

Prudence and perspective may indeed be our best tools in the current situation. Regardless of whether the fatality rate of CV is greater or lesser than influenza, the sheer virulence of CV rates prudent treatment.

BTW, I had a flu shot this year... and caught the flu anyway. I was given the vaccine for Type A and managed to catch Type B. I'm 62, with no respiratory issues and generally in good health (other than unrelated joint issues) and the flu put me out of action for three weeks, with another month before fully recovering. At one point, I woke up unable to breathe and wondering if this was it - no drama intended. I suspect that contracting CV wouldn't be any less dangerous than that. It's worth the attention and precautions IMO... but not the panic that we're seeing.

[IdahoMtnSpyder]

Ron,

Prudence and perspective may indeed be our best tools in the current situation. Regardless of whether the fatality rate of CV is greater or lesser than influenza, the sheer virulence of CV rates prudent treatment.
:agree: SARS had a death rate about 10% and MERS about 34%. That compares to about 1% for Covid-19. However, the contagiousness and transmissibility of Covid-19 is magnitudes greater. There were only a handful of SARS and MERS cases in the US. Death rate by itself is not a meaningful number. https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronavirus-compares-sars-mers-recent-viral-outbreaks/story?id=69329364. Dr Frieden, former CDC director and CEO of Resolve to Save Lives, an epidemic fighting world organization, said the same thing tonight on PBS's Firing Line.

[bikerbillone]

Canamjb, right on target with your comment, shopping at Walmart is no fun, none, ya get home all aggravated. So to endure senior shopping there is aggravation to the max; some dummy at Walmart corporate fell off his fell chair thinking this one up? I suspect this 'person' got one of those Walmart $ bonus for this one. Just my opinion.....

[BajaRon]

I have to say that I am very proud of everyone who has commented. You have kept the conversation civil, rational, and maybe even productive. I knew this one had a real potential for the forum police to step in. The fact that they have not felt the need to do so is a credit to you all.

It was not my intention to increase the drama, point fingers, or stir up any strife with this. We are in uncharted territory. And I agree that unity is our greatest asset. I hope we, as a nation, choose to apply it. So far, and in large part, I think America has done exactly that (notwithstanding the occasional chaos). I have always felt that there is more to Spyderlovers.com than owning a Can-Am Spyder. I've always gotten the feeling that we are here for each other, when needed. This allows us to benefit from both On and Off-Topic posts.

Thank you all for being there. Ride safe, and stay healthy. This too shall pass.

[bikerbillone]

Ron, having been on the gl1800riders forum for many years, I cannot tell you how much better this forum is, in my opinion.

[ARtraveler]

From post #5:

The moderators are just trying to make sure that no "bad" information gets posted concerning the virus. We have already had some complaints that we are allowing people to post information that may or may not be correct.

One has suggested that we kill all virus threads because of the possibility of mis-information.

We do not wish to do that...

We are treading a fine line here...so please bear with us.

And we would say, it is working across the board and on similar threads. :yes: :yes: :yes:

[Rogue Hawk]

To borrow a line from The Thirteenth Warrior, "Panic profits a man nothing."

Toilet paper panic profits the chili eater. - Me

[BajaRon]

Being retired from Cal-Fire (the agency in California largely responsible for preventing and suppressing wildland fires. Though we also have a great number of 'City' fire departments as well). I get a weekly 'Retired Members' update. Mostly obituaries of retirees who have passed. But it also contains other items of interest to life long firefighters and first responders in general. Here is an analogy that came in the latest edition which I feel worth repeating.

Analogy from a retired wildland firefighter regarding the Coronavirus

As a retired battalion chief from California who fought wildland fires for 34 years, I have some experience in rapidly escalating emergencies, and I would like to share an analogy with everyone that may help put things in perspective for those who are resisting or ignoring social distancing recommendations.

I think it would help to look at the Corona Virus as an invisible wildfire. Each and every one of us represent the fuel that this wildfire could potentially consume. This wildfire will not discriminate based on age, race, religion, social-economic status, sexuality, your sexual identity or political affiliation.

When an incident commander arrives on a fast moving wildfire and realizes it’s advancing faster than the initial response can handle, they order an incident management team. These are highly trained people, expert in specific areas of addressing an overwhelming emergency, { that would be the CDC in this analogy } . The first thing the team does is transition from initial attack mode, to planning on a much larger scale. The team will start looking at where the fire will be tomorrow, where will it be 2 days from now, 2 weeks from now, { or in this case, months from now }. By looking days or weeks ahead, they attempt to get ahead of the fire, not forced to simply react to what it is doing now. This, many times, means implementing a plan that removes fuel from the path of the fire. A fire, starved for fuel, is much easier to contain. Remember, WE, you and I, are the fuel in this wildfire analogy.

Social distancing is an effective way of removing the fuel from this advancing fire {virus}. Most people would not put themselves in front of an advancing wildfire. Nor, hopfully, would they ignore the advice of a trained professional trying to help them. Yet, some people still seem resistant to the idea of social distancing recommendations from the CDC. Reasons vary, and can include financial concerns, simply not liking to be told what to do, and some my not have accepted the potential severity of the fire {virus}. But if you and I do not work together and realize that we are the fuel in the path of this wildfire. We may well be adding to the problem rather than being a part of the solution.

I can tell you that as good as our emergency response teams are. They cannot do the job alone. They are not simply generating edicts from their high tower. They are on the ground with men and women, putting their lives on the line to make a difference. It takes, sometimes, thousands of firefighters, cooperating government and civilian organizations, and a public citizenry that is willing to work within the plan, to subdue some very difficult and sometimes deadly wildland fires. It is my hope that we all start listening to the CDC guidelines. The CDC is not perfect. And there are many unknowns, just as in a wildland fire. But together, we can beat this.

The numbers of Corona virus cases are growing daily, as well as the deaths from this 'wildfire'. We can't save those already lost. But we can go a long way towards protecting those who are not yet affected. We all need to step up and do the right thing. I know that we can.

[bikerbillone]

Wow, good one Ron, thanks much.

[TicketBait]

Please stop comparing this Coronavirus Pandemic to the seasonal flu, or Swine flu. There is a vaccine for one of the many strains of flu. None yet for Corvid 19. Let's keep discussing what the experts say. :thumbup:This expert, Dr Anthony Fauci, M.D., NIAID Director says this is 10 times more deadly. TEN Times!

Also this Virus is asymptomatic. Note the NBA players who tested positive but felt well enough to play. The Flu is 50%

[IdahoMtnSpyder]

Being retired from Cal-Fire (the agency in California largely responsible for preventing and suppressing wildland fires. Though we also have a great number of 'City' fire departments as well). I get a weekly 'Retired Members' update. Mostly obituaries of retirees who have passed. But it also contains other items of interest to life long firefighters and first responders in general. Here is an analogy that came in the latest edition which I feel worth repeating.

Analogy from a retired wildland firefighter regarding the Coronavirus
You have shared a very good response to your own question in the first post. Thank you.

[Navydad]

I got this note from my son in law, Ryan, this morning. He is a nurse practitioner working in a small hospital where they are gearing up for the virus. Pretty much goes along with what we have been hearing from the experts. Just thought I would post it.

From Ryan on the front lines.


Some FYI for today. Our ER doc spoke with a doc that is over a COVID hospital in the US that has now handled hundreds of COVID patients. He says they have learned tons from studying the virus there. The primary mode of transmission in almost all cases is touching around your eyes, nose, or mouth after touching a contaminated surface. He says if we literally practice religious hand hygiene and never touch our face without thoroughly washing our hands right before, we won't get it. They've found that you can be in the same room breathing the same air as a COVID patient for up to 30 minutes before you get enough droplet load to contract the disease. An exception would be them coughing or sneezing directly at you of course. Our ER doc does not think we will get a tidal wave of cases in this region as predicted. Hope he's right, but we are prepping for the tidal wave nonetheless.

[BajaRon]

Preparing for a tidal wave that never comes is better than the other way around. Thanks for the update.

[canamjhb]

A lot of good information here and available elsewhere. We are surely in a changing world and I hope this is not a forever thing. Meanwhile, while I am social-distancing, I have discovered several different TV options through my streaming stuff. I am currently in the middle of watching some of the episodes of "Laugh-In". Pretty irreverent stuff for 50 years ago. And a lot of dead people who did guest appearances. Bringing some humor into the current situation is a good diversion. Stay well..... Jim

[Lew L]

double post.:opps:

[Lew L]

Preparing for a tidal wave that never comes is better than the other way around.

The country and the state governments certainly forgot about the many viral epidemics in the near past. Heard that there were many thousands of " out dated " masks in a warehouse in the mid west????


https://khn.org/morning-breakout/theres-a-stockpile-of-nearly-1-5m-masks-in-a-government-warehouse-but-theyre-expired/

[bikerbillone]

When this thing is done, warehouses all over the country will be full of these masks' and whatever else we can no longer use.

[Gwolf]

“The oldest and strongest emotion of mankind is fear, and the oldest and strongest kind of fear is fear of the unknown”
― H.P. Lovecraft

[bmccaffrey]

“The oldest and strongest emotion of mankind is fear, and the oldest and strongest kind of fear is fear of the unknown”
― H.P. Lovecraft:clap::clap::clap::clap::bowdown::bowdown ::bowdown::bowdown::bowdown:

[RapidSpyder]

When this thing is done, warehouses all over the country will be full of these masks' and whatever else we can no longer use.

And people will be dumping the shed full of tp that they had been hoarding.

[bikerbillone]

Oh yes, you mean those folks that were gonna re-sell at the big profit? I got a big chuckle when some of those folks were trying to return baskets full of TP to Cosco and they wouldn't accept it. :>) There's a moral to that story.

[oldgoat]

Oh yes, you mean those folks that were gonna re-sell at the big profit? I got a big chuckle when some of those folks were trying to return baskets full of TP to Cosco and they wouldn't accept it. :>) There's a moral to that story.

Keep it. For sure that is one item that will eventually get used up.

[IdahoMtnSpyder]

Keep it. For sure that is one item that will eventually get used up.
As long as the roof of the shed where the excess TP is stored doesn't spring a leak!

[bikerbillone]

Good one, MtnSpyder, and of course, if the store does not take the TP back then the only course of action is for the hoarder is to hoard the TP. End of my story.

[ARtraveler]

Don't you all just love Karma? :roflblack: :roflblack:

There is a person in MO that tried to snarf up all the hand sanitizer he could get his hands on. He thought he was going to get $70 per bottle.

He was issued a cease and desist order and is now stuck with it.

[trikermutha]

I think he gave away a bunch to the Fire Fighters and the what was left got seized by the Government.

[BLUEKNIGHT911]

I think he gave away a bunch to the Fire Fighters and the what was left got seized by the Government.

If true then :thumbup::thumbup::thumbup: ......... Personally I think what was worse was how all the Mainstream media ( not Fox news ) was trashing the " My Pillow " guy, for His religious comments when He was at a recent White House public briefing ( for being thanked for His Donation of MASKS ).... I am aware of His life story as a recovering DRUG Addict, who proclaims religion saved His life ....... just my prospective on that ...... stay safe .... Mike :ohyea:

[ARtraveler]

I think he gave away a bunch to the Fire Fighters and the what was left got seized by the Government.

I missed that update. Thank you

[TicketBait]

Not gonna comment on mr pillow guy as it is a waste of time.:barf: not fit for off topic Spyderlovers either. Jmo

[trikermutha]

I missed that update. Thank you

I am pretty sure he was forced to give away or the feds were going to confiscate it all.

[BajaRon]

According to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System, total U.S. deaths for the month of March 2020 are 15% LESS than the average of the past 4 years.

We can speculate as to why. But those are the hard numbers. 34,000 fewer deaths in the month of March than the 4 year average.

[IdahoMtnSpyder]

According to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System, total U.S. deaths for the month of March 2020 are 15% LESS than the average of the past 4 years.

We can speculate as to why. But those are the hard numbers. 34,000 fewer deaths in the month of March than the 4 year average.
Boise EMTs are reporting as many ambulance runs in a day as they used to do per shift. Police are reporting fewer auto accidents. The stay at home order is having some interesting effects aside from slowing the Covid-19 virus spread.

[h0gr1der]

According to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System, total U.S. deaths for the month of March 2020 are 15% LESS than the average of the past 4 years.

We can speculate as to why. But those are the hard numbers. 34,000 fewer deaths in the month of March than the 4 year average.

I just saw a report on the R0 communicability factor being much higher than previously reported. IT was first estimated around the mid 2's, not their claiming it's in the mid 5 range. Which may mean it is far more widespread, and therefore less lethal than projected. Pure speculation of course. But I still have to avoid it like the plague :yikes:because of health issues.

[wyliec]

Boise EMTs are reporting as many ambulance runs in a day as they used to do per shift. Police are reporting fewer auto accidents. The stay at home order is having some interesting effects aside from slowing the Covid-19 virus spread.

I agree. But when I went to the CDC site (copy/paste DC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System), it shows influenza and pneumonia only. I'm not quite sure what BajaRon was getting at, and don't want to assume. I do have an assumption though, but don't want to say.

[BajaRon]

I agree. But when I went to the CDC site (copy/paste DC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System), it shows influenza and pneumonia only. I'm not quite sure what BajaRon was getting at, and don't want to assume. I do have an assumption though, but don't want to say.

My last quote was for all causes. Not just illnesses. If that is what you are referring to.

[wyliec]

My last quote was for all causes. Not just illnesses. If that is what you are referring to.

Can you link me to it? I can only get to what I mentioned above.

[BajaRon]

Can you link me to it? I can only get to what I mentioned above.

I am having trouble finding the exact report that I took my posted information from. There are probably thousands of links on Google pertaining to the subject. But this one is very close. I hope it is good enough. If you discover that the information is not correct. Let me know and I will amend my post. Unfortunately, it seems that these days, everyone has an agenda, an ax to grind, and they don't mind stretching the truth, or even fabricating it, to achieve their goals. That is not where I want to be.

http://dailyheadlines.com/this-is-strange-total-us-deaths-in-march-2020-are-actually-down-15-from-average-of-prior-four-years/?utm_source=FAB%20-alert%20email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=subscriber_id:3816429&utm_campaign=4/8%20DH.COM%206PM

[Gwolf]

I am having trouble finding the exact report that I took my posted information from. There are probably thousands of links on Google pertaining to the subject. But this one is very close. I hope it is good enough. If you discover that the information is not correct. Let me know and I will amend my post. Unfortunately, it seems that these days, everyone has an agenda, an ax to grind, and they don't mind stretching the truth, or even fabricating it, to achieve their goals. That is not where I want to be.

http://dailyheadlines.com/this-is-strange-total-us-deaths-in-march-2020-are-actually-down-15-from-average-of-prior-four-years/?utm_source=FAB%20-alert%20email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=subscriber_id:3816429&utm_campaign=4/8%20DH.COM%206PM


I don't know if the figures are accurate or not, but it is not hard to understand how that could be correct. Almost any deaths now of a person with the virus are attributed to the virus. If they have the virus and died of a heart attack, it was the virus. With that in mind, all the deaths attributed to other factors in previous years are not any more numerous, but are now being attributed to the virus. Most of the population is staying home. Automobile accidents, teen driving accidents, many other causes of death in previous years would naturally be down for this year. People are not out there, drinking and driving, speeding, or engaging in other risky behaviors. They are staying home.

[bmccaffrey]

Almost every toe tag says covid-19 no matter what the cause if death. Sad!!

[BajaRon]

Almost every toe tag says covid-19 no matter what the cause if death. Sad!!

Funny you should mention this. Apparently the number of general flu related deaths are down by quite a bit this year. Again, there are a number of variables that might contribute to the lower numbers. But the accusation is that people passing away from the regular flu are being counted as Corona Virus victims. Not that this is necessarily due to any attempt to purposefully skew the numbers. But attributed it to lazy, inaccurate reporting.

I wonder if we will ever know what actually is happening.

[Mazo EMS2]

Funny you should mention this. Apparently the number of general flu related deaths are down by quite a bit this year. Again, there are a number of variables that might contribute to the lower numbers. But the accusation is that people passing away from the regular flu are being counted as Corona Virus victims. Not that this is necessarily due to any attempt to purposefully skew the numbers. But attributed it to lazy, inaccurate reporting.

I wonder if we will ever know what actually is happening.

Unfortunately a lot of deaths are being reported "as a result Covid related complications".....This seems like an awful broad statement. It certainly leaves a lot of opportunity to skew numbers. I don't honestly believe that we will ever know how many lives were directly lost to the virus. My personal hunch is that it is a much lower number than we are being lead to believe.

[IdahoMtnSpyder]

Unfortunately a lot of deaths are being reported "as a result Covid related complications".....This seems like an awful broad statement. It certainly leaves a lot of opportunity to skew numbers. I don't honestly believe that we will ever know how many lives were directly lost to the virus. My personal hunch is that it is a much lower number than we are being lead to believe.
On the other hand there are reportedly many deaths where the deceased showed corona virus symptoms and was never tested. From what I've read WHO rules state no death is listed as a Covid-19 death if the deceased was not tested with positive results. If that's the case then the number of C-19 deaths could actually be significantly underreported.

[bikerbillone]

Two words, "WHO sucks".

[stmike 1800]

WHO is totally corrupt ,and ran by thieves .

[bikerbillone]

After reading this thread until my eyes glazed over, I have determined that post #16 with the Walmart experience by 'canam' is the best. Going to Walmart and feelng good when ya come out is impossible. Wife went to pick up a prescription, got three items, tried to check out, lines at self check out were tight and long, one cashier with another impossible line. Wife said she saw no one with toilet paper, remember back in the 'old days' when ya could go the paper products aisle and there was TP as far as the eye could see? Folks, it's a crazy world out there.

[ARtraveler]

We are avoiding even going near WalMart. We have always used the local (to us) supermarket about 5 miles from home. They also have gas and pharmacy. Changed out our scrips from WM to there. Can now pick them up from the drive through. No lines. And I was even able to get TP just by asking last time...limit 1 pkg of course. I guess one of the advantages of small town country.

[bikerbillone]

Traveler, you are in the right place, small town NW AR. I've often thought thought about Mtn Home AR, but then getting a bit long in the tooth to move.

[ARtraveler]

Traveler, you are in the right place, small town NW AR. I've often thought thought about Mtn Home AR, but then getting a bit long in the tooth to move.

Mountain Home about 25 miles NE. Nice, but a little more "big city" than where we are now. Also considered MH, but glad we found this gem. :bowdown:

[BajaRon]

WHO is totally corrupt ,and ran by thieves .

If I was not concerned about getting in trouble for it.... I'd agree with you 100%! Maybe even add the UN to the list. That is, if I were going to post, which I'm not. Just thinking out loud...

Lamont is always accusing me of having 'Negative Waves!'. I'm not having negative waves. I'm just riding them!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncbEucjsNFU

[ARtraveler]

Mod talk:

Let's leave things where they are about uno what. Everyone is fine for now. :bowdown: :bowdown:

[bmccaffrey]

Funny you should mention this. Apparently the number of general flu related deaths are down by quite a bit this year. Again, there are a number of variables that might contribute to the lower numbers. But the accusation is that people passing away from the regular flu are being counted as Corona Virus victims. Not that this is necessarily due to any attempt to purposefully skew the numbers. But attributed it to lazy, inaccurate reporting.

I wonder if we will ever know what actually is happening.

I doubt it Ron. If people die from respiratory death automatic corona. No test . They say waste of test kit. Numbers will never be accurate

[IdahoMtnSpyder]

I doubt it Ron. If people die from respiratory death automatic corona. No test . They say waste of test kit. Numbers will never be accurate
Numbers will never be accurate simply because there are so many variables at play. Here are a couple of CDC pages that are kind of interesting. In order for a death to be listed as Covid-19 caused there has to be some evidence that it really could be. One of the factors complicating determinations is this quote.

At this time, there is little influenza virus circulation so the elevated proportion of people presenting with these symptoms is likely due to COVID-19, but may be tempered by a number of factors including less ILI overall because of widespread adoption of social distancing efforts as well as changes in healthcare seeking practices.
Since flu virus is circulating less then you would expect flu deaths to be down, but flu-like deaths are plentiful. The conclusion is then that it most likely is Covid-19. But those deaths are supposed to be annotated as presumptive in the absence of a positive test. So in the end the best we can hope for are reasonably accurate educated guesses.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

People obviously are not living in a historically normal manner so that naturally throws everything into a mess that has been based on people's normal patterns of living.